Credit Suisse has published a forecast for the upcoming summer tourist season. The war in Ukraine is likely to have a greater impact on Swiss tourism than expected.
Switzerland’s tourism industry has been hit hard by the corona pandemic. After the easing of restrictions, there were good omens for a quick recovery. The war in Ukraine, according to Credit Suisse forecasts, could weaken this recovery.
Instability in Europe deters tourists
The war is likely to have less of a direct impact on Swiss tourism. This is due to the fact that Ukrainian and Russian tourists do not make up a significant proportion of visitors. However, instability in Europe is likely to have a deterrent effect on long-haul travelers from America and Asia.
A similar effect was observed after a series of terrorist attacks in Europe in 2015. Even though Switzerland was not directly affected, a large number of Asian visitors were unable to make the trip. A similar effect was seen among Americans after the September 11, 2001 attacks.
The war has also pushed up the cost of energy, CS analysts write. On the one hand, this will lead to an increase in air travel prices. On the other hand, consumer sentiment in the US and China is already declining. This is likely to further reduce the desire to travel.
Chinese travelers continue to cancel travel due to corona
The fact that covid restrictions remain in place in China like nowhere else is having a big impact on Swiss tourism. In 2019, the Chinese were still the fifth most important group of visitors.
The negative effects are likely to be particularly noticeable in the central part of Switzerland. In Lucerne in 2019, the Chinese booked 9 percent of all overnight stays. In Obwalden and Nidwalden this share reaches 12 percent.
Swiss travelers want to travel abroad again
In its report, Credit Suisse also suggests that Swiss citizens will again increasingly want to spend their holidays abroad. After the last two years at home, most want to spend their holidays on the beach or in distant lands.
For analysis, a large bank analyzed Google searches as of the end of March. Between May and August, a significant proportion of domestic tourists are likely to be lost. Thus, Swiss tourism in the summer will not be able to rely on this important pillar for two pandemic years.