The battle for Slavyansk, which the Russians are trying to capture, is the key moment of the war in Ukraine; the capture of this city will give the Russians the opportunity to surround Ukrainian troops in the Donbass, according to a report published on Monday by the U.S. Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
“If the invading forces advancing from Izyum (a city in the Kharkiv region captured by Russian troops on April 1 – ed.) capture Slavyansk, located 50 km to the southeast, they will be able to try to join the fighting in Rubizhne, Luhansk region, or move to the side Gorlovka and Donetsk.
They will not break the Ukrainian defense
“The second option would allow expanding the encirclement of Ukrainian troops. If Russian troops had not captured Slavyansk, they would not have been able to break through the defenses of Ukraine on their own. Back then, Moscow’s campaign was aimed at taking control of all of Luhansk and Donetsk. areas are likely to end in failure,” university analysts say
According to the American analytical center, the advance of Russian troops in the Donbas is still limited. Russian units have more and more morale and supply problems. The key goal in this operational direction, the capture of Mariupol by the Sea of Azov, has not been achieved either. According to ISW, Moscow’s efforts to move to eastern Ukraine the formations that are still fighting in the area of Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, as well as to mobilize reservists, will not lead to a significant increase in Russian potential in the Donbas.
Another operational direction?
The defeated Russian forces in the north-east of Ukraine (who have fought so far in the Zhytomyr, Kiev, Chernihiv and Sumy regions – ed.) are retreating to Russia. It is unlikely that these troops can be used effectively in another operational direction, despite Moscow’s efforts to transfer these formations to eastern Ukraine.
The Institute for Military Studies is an American independent think tank founded in 2007 in Washington. He is engaged in analysis in the field of foreign and security policy, including military issues.