The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) calls the success of the Russian offensive in the Donbas “highly unlikely.” As experts emphasize, the aggressor troops did not overcome key problems, such as disunity and “catastrophically low” morale of soldiers.
“Russian troops, which have been concentrating in eastern Ukraine for several weeks, have begun a new phase of the operation, the goal of which is likely to capture all Ukrainian regions, Luhansk and Donetsk,” the institute said in a statement. foreign affairs. He added that on Monday, the Russians were carrying out intensive shelling and shelling of the cities of Rubizhnoye, Popasnaya and Marinka. It was noted that, despite the increased scale of operations, Russian troops have not yet taken control of new areas.
Russia is strong only in theory?
A Russian offensive in the east “probably will not be radically more effective than previous major Russian offensives near Kyiv,” ISW estimates. This is justified by the fact that the occupying armies did not solve the main problems that hindered previous operations – problems with the coherence of the units and the low morale of the soldiers. The Russian army has not fully recreated the troops withdrawn from near Kyiv, and the new soldiers called up in them do not have the proper connection with them, the American center emphasizes.
“Frequent reports of catastrophically low Russian morale and subsequent logistical problems show that the actual combat strength of Russian troops in Ukraine is only a fraction of their theoretical strength, expressed by the number of tactical battalion groups,” writes ISW.
ISW: Russian success is unlikely
However, the center stipulates that Russian troops can inflict damage on Ukrainian troops and capture other regions of the country. “This would be possible due to the high concentration of artillery units and the simple numerical superiority of the Russians, but such successes of the attackers would also be associated with heavy losses,” the message explains.
“A sudden and significant success of the Russian offensive remains unlikely, and tactical Ukrainian losses do not mean the end of the campaign in eastern Ukraine, let alone the entire war,” concludes ISW.