The American Institute for the Study of War has calculated that Ukrainian forces have won the battle for Kyiv and that the Russians are withdrawing from the Ukrainian capital. He adds that this is a significant but not decisive victory. The war is far from over, and its outcome may still be favorable for Russia.
The Russians are withdrawing from both directions from which they tried to approach Kiev, from the northwest and northeast, according to a message published on Sunday evening. It added that the retreat of the Russian troops is disordered, some units are left behind and are under attack by Ukrainian forces.
Combat capability of Russia
This suggests that at least part of the Russian troops returning from Kyiv will not be able to continue hostilities in the near future. These units will take a long time to recover their combat capability.
The war, however, is far from over, and the outcome could still be beneficial for the Russians if they manage to successfully launch an offensive in eastern Ukraine, the American think tank emphasizes. He adds that the Russians are already occupying large areas in the south and east of the country, and freezing the front lines through a truce or peace negotiations will give Russia the opportunity to increase pressure on Ukraine, and in time, perhaps a chance to gather more forces for another invasion.
At the same time, according to the Institute of Military Affairs, there are no longer any fears about the continued existence of Ukraine as an independent state with its capital in Kyiv.
East of Ukraine
Thus, the main direction of the Russian attack is the east of Ukraine; The Russians have two main goals here: to capture Mariupol and take control of the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions, the American center notes. It notes that the Russian offensive in these areas has made limited progress over the past 24 hours.
In order to concentrate their troops in the east, the Russians will also withdraw from the Chernihiv region and will probably also abandon almost all of their positions west of Kharkov, ISW predicts.
The center also cites reports from the Ukrainian side about numerous cases of Russian servicemen refusing to follow orders, which should also become a serious challenge for the Russian command. The Institute of Military Affairs emphasizes that they could not verify this information on their own, but consider it reliable in the light of other, independent reports and data on Russian losses.