The issue of embargoing flights to Turkey and depriving Russian tourists of flights to the sea is being actively discussed against the background of the dissatisfaction of the USA and the EU with the cooperation between Russia and the Republic of Turkey. First of all, Turkish tourism may suffer severe sanctions fate, but Russian tourism will suffer as a result. Turkish aviation experts were afraid of possible air sanctions from the West and fear that their country could be left without aircraft taken on lease.
We will remind you about the letter of the US Deputy Minister of Finance Wally Adeyemo to the American Chamber of Commerce and a similar document sent to the largest Turkish business association TUSIAD. The message takes the form of pressure: Turkish organizations that support Russian business and tourism are threatened with strict restrictions. Turkey’s tourism has come under the crosshairs of secondary US sanctions – read details about the European country’s pressure at this link.
Pessimistic views for Turkey
While the West imposed an embargo on Russian tourism, Turkey’s aviation sector, which prides itself on flying one flight to Russia every 5 minutes this season, was horrified by a written message from the US to TUSIAD. As Turkiyeturizm reported, aviation experts evaluating potential restrictions on Turkey said that such a strict step by the EU and the US would be implemented, and in a panic issued a message with the following content: “Our planes will be embargoed. We are Turks, we say that everything will be fine with us. But they can hurt us. We can run out of planes in an instant.”
According to the written message, one of the sectors of Turkey that will be affected by the restrictions in case of continued cooperation with the Russian side is aviation. At the same time, the republic’s newspapers and television proudly talk about the increase in the flow of tourists from the Russian Federation to the sea. The intense movement of flights of Turkish airlines with Russian tourists is endangered, say Turkish experts.
Risks for the aviation sector of Turkey, and therefore for Russian vacationers, are indeed there, experts warned. It is about closing the airspace of the republic. For example, one of the leaders of the Turkish aviation sector, Alper Eldzic, pointed out the vulnerability: “They (the EU and the US) can greatly harm us in aviation by imposing restrictions on the flights of Turkish carriers to Europe and the US. The USA is not the most important market for us, which cannot be said about Europe. We need European flights. On the other hand, they can do the same to us as they did to Russia. They can interrupt flights. If they want to push us even harder, there are even more serious sanctions. 90% of our aircraft, perhaps more, are leased from Western companies for a long period – 4 years, 7 years or so. Based on these contracts, they can ban us from flying these planes to Russia. They can do even worse and demand the return of the liners, as they did with Russia. We will be without a fleet in an instant. This is a big problem. All this is theoretically possible, but in practice, how far the West will go under Turkish pressure depends on our diplomacy. For example, if we bring a second S-400 (anti-aircraft system), it will happen.”
Former Deputy General Director of Civil Aviation Oktay Erdagi is also concerned about the current situation. “Access of Airbus and Boeing aircraft in Russia to documents and spare parts is prohibited by their manufacturers. Therefore, the International Civil Aviation Organization imposed a ban on the admission of these aircraft to its airspace, as they allegedly do not meet safety standards.”
At the same time, the expert added that the opinion that nothing terrible will happen to Turkey is based solely on faith. However, if the West decides to impose an embargo on the republic, which has close trade and tourism ties with the Russian Federation, the situation will be catastrophic.
An optimistic view of Turkey
Former trade adviser at the embassy in Moscow, diplomacy analyst Aydin Sezer believes it is unlikely that the West will impose aviation sanctions against Turkey. Sezer made the following assessment, stressing that Turkey is not officially a country participating in the sanctions: “They will not be able to do anything. The bottom line is that Turkey has not closed its airspace to Russia. The expressed concern is an objection to Turkey’s voluntary closure of its airspace. Airbus or Boeing don’t fly, other planes do. Russian planes are flying.
In other words, the West cannot impose an embargo on the planes of Turkish airlines just because they enter Russian airspace. There is no legal basis for this. There is no international embargo like the UN embargo on Iran. Moreover, all Russian banks have been withdrawn from the SWIFT system. There are also Turkish banks operating in Moscow. Third countries have no right to say a word to planes arriving in a country with open airspace.”