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Russians will have to forget about foreign tourism for many years: the plans of Russian airlines have become known

Many Russians will have to forget about foreign tourism for many years: at least until 2030, in the plans of the leading Russian carriers, it is not necessary to increase foreign capacity even to the volume of 2019, and therefore airlines, based on the forecasts of officials, understand that units will now travel abroad. Such shocking plans of the airlines were indicated in its research by ATOR. It is based on the “analysis of data published by the Aeroflot group of companies as part of the development strategy until 2030, as well as earlier in the approved government program for the development of the aviation industry.”

Thus, according to Aeroflot’s strategy, all airlines of the group, first of all, Aeroflot itself, “Russia” and “Peremoga” and “Aeroflot” plan to transport “at least half” of all those flying in Russia and outside the country by the specified deadline, namely 65 million passengers. According to experts, this “will allow us to secure at least 50% of the market share.” Moreover, this number is given taking into account foreign airlines.

And according to ATOR’s calculations, only under such a schedule will no more than 130 million passengers be able to use air flights in Russia and foreign countries. At the same time, the air transport development strategy plans to transport at least 104 million passengers on domestic routes alone. If you count these two forecasts, 26 million seats remain for the share of foreign trips.

“Based on the forecast data of Aeroflot and the air transport development program, it can be assumed that in 2030, passengers will technically be able to make no more than 13 million trips by air transport between Russia and foreign destinations,” ATOR said. To this, experts add that in only three quarters of 2022, almost 4 million foreigners entered Russia by air transport. As a result, by 2030, Russian tourists will be able to make 8 to 13 million trips – and a little more, since foreigners will also occupy the same volumes.

Next, experts provide statistics – in 2019, tourists made 25.8 million foreign trips abroad “by air”, 2020 is “irrelevant” for the obvious reasons of the general closure, in 2021 the number of trips reached 11.4 million. And for the calculated three-quarters of 2022 – 7.75 million foreign trips. “Thus, the number of flights abroad will remain at the level of the crisis years: the plans of the government and the national air carrier do not imply an increase in the number of foreign trips of Russians,” ATOR experts conclude. According to their estimates, at best, the number of departures will remain at the level of 2021-2022, which is half as much as in 2019.

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