Over the past two years, Italian tourism has experienced many problems, mainly due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which has slowed the entire industry. 2020 was particularly difficult because the country had 70% fewer bookings. 2021 showed some signs of improvement (+ 51% compared to the previous year), and although it is still far from the pre-pandemic level, stakeholders in the industry considered it a building block.
Now Italian tourism is again under threat after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two weeks ago.
Many negative consequences are expected
Some in Italy say that the war in Ukraine “brought us back to the horror we thought we should not experience” because many of the dramatic consequences of the conflict will almost certainly affect Italy’s tourism industry.
There is already a significant impact on the cost of energy and raw materials, which is likely to affect the prices of tourism services and mobility in general, which will exacerbate the situation.
However, perhaps even more devastating for the sector is the risk of huge losses in long-distance tourism, and not just from Russia.
While there is no doubt that inflows from Russia will virtually disappear due to sanctions imposed by the European Union, the current situation in Europe may also affect inflows from other important source markets.
The importance of foreign markets
While it is true that 67% of those who come to Italy from abroad come from the European Union, this does not mean that more distant markets are marginal.
The Russians, for their part, accounted for 3% of the influx of tourists to Italy in 2019 at a cost of 1 billion euros (2% of the total). In this context, however, it should be noted that the consequences are likely to be very uneven, as the main interest for Russian tourists is the western part of the country.
In particular, Russian tourists are an important source of income for Rimini, as they account for 50% of foreign tourism in the city. Other popular destinations include Venice, Milan and Verona. And the importance of the Russians for the luxury segment can not be overestimated.
However, as predicted above, the war in Ukraine is likely to spread perceptions of the vulnerability of the European continent as a whole, so the influx of other major extravagances, such as the Americans, is also expected to decrease.
In this context, there are already the first signs of a more cautious approach. According to the Italian Federation of Travel and Tourism Associations, American tourists are beginning to cancel their bookings in Italy because they are concerned about “proximity to Ukraine.”
The absence of American tourists will be a big blow to Italian tourism, as in 2019 they accounted for 7% of total inflows (16.3 million) at a cost of about 5.5 billion euros (13% of total costs).
Finally, according to the latest data, even the Italians themselves are beginning to reconsider their plans for the summer, while demand for Spain and Portugal is increasing only to be “away from the epicenter of the crisis.”
In general, the ongoing crisis is another blow to the already devastated tourism industry. The atmosphere of uncertainty persists, and it is difficult to predict what will happen in the coming months.