According to the first forecasts of world institutions, due to the war in Ukraine, Serbia will grow by one percent lower than planned, it will also suffer due to the non-imposition of sanctions against Russia, the Serbian newspaper “Danas” writes today.
The country’s leadership claims that Belgrade will not choose the side between Russia and the West, but the losses are already almost a billion euros, regardless of whether Serbia imposes sanctions or not, the newspaper writes.
According to former Ambassador Srecko Djukic, Serbia is already losing a little over a billion dollars a year just because of EU sanctions against Russia.
The question of what price Serbia will have to pay if it imposes or does not impose sanctions on Russia is rightly asked in society. “I think the EU knows what the bill will be like. President Aleksandar Vucic also knows what the bill is. The only ones who don’t know are the citizens of Serbia,” Djukic was quoted as saying by BTA.
Economist Mikhail Gaic told Nova.rs that economic consequences are possible for Serbia both if sanctions are imposed and not imposed on Russia.
The war in Ukraine has cost Serbia dearly, as evidenced by projected growth of 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent by the end of this year. Europe’s economy has slowed, affecting Serbia. We are facing a difficult choice, and the options are by no means very good, Gajic explained.
Economist Vladimir Gligorov noted that losses for Serbia at this stage will be very high if friendly prices for Russian gas are not adopted.
In December last year, Serbia reached an agreement with Russia to receive gas at a friendly price of $ 270 per 1,000 cubic meters for the next six months, and Belgrade will again receive a huge discount after the current gas import agreement expires.
An additional problem is political instability. “We hope that the reaction of the United States and the European Union will not be very negative at first. In the long run, there is a choice between lower gas prices and loss of economic development,” Gligorov said.
He stressed that the long-term problem is that the EU will economically separate itself from Russia, and therefore from Serbia, if it does not follow the Brussels line.
“In the short term, it is likely that joining the sanctions regime will lead to political problems in Serbia. In the long run, disappointment, especially in Germany, with the Serbian government’s behavior may have serious consequences. The problem will be the EU’s economic secession from Russia. “And from countries like Serbia. And Serbia has no replacement for the EU market. In this case, there is a risk not only for economic growth but also for the country’s development,” Gligorov warned.