Russia has 4,477 nuclear weapons in its arsenal. Of these, 1,588 are strategic warheads placed on ballistic missiles launched from mines, mobile installations, ships, submarines or heavy bombers. And another 977 strategic warheads and 1912 non-strategic warheads are in reserve. In addition, about 1,500 Russian nuclear weapons have been declared obsolete and are subject to dismantling. This is evidenced by data from the Federation of American Scientists.
Under what conditions is the escalation of the conflict in Ukraine into a nuclear war possible?
With such a development of events, at first glance, everyone will lose, but this does not make it impossible.
One of the possible options is a Russian nuclear strike on Ukraine, which is unlikely to be followed by a global catastrophe.
There are historical precedents for such actions. At the end of World War II, the United States justified the dropping of atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by claiming that they had defeated Japan faster and with far fewer casualties and achieved peace.
So far, the war in Ukraine is not going well for the Russian army, despite its complete military superiority. At some point, the Kremlin may feel that a nuclear attack on Kiev would be justified in order to limit Russian troop losses and the cost of military action to the Russian economy.
Currently, the Ukrainian capital is being fired at by medium-range missiles from Iskander mobile installations located in Belarus. The installations under consideration can also launch missiles with nuclear warheads.
A nuclear strike on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities would be a heinous act that most Russians would reject. Almost every Russian citizen has relatives, acquaintances, colleagues or friends in Ukraine.
However, Russian President Vladimir Putin already controls all media and even the Internet in Russia. The last independent radio and TV station was closed last week. Access to social networks such as Facebook and Twitter was closed by the Russian authorities. And under the new law, even the mention of the “war in Ukraine” can be punished by imprisonment for up to 15 years.
Officially, Russia is conducting a special demilitarization and denazification operation in the neighboring country in order to free the brotherly Ukrainian people from the US-imposed ruling clique. There were no civilian casualties during this operation. And Russian troops are fighting illegal far-right militias.
And many Russians believe in these lies, because in Russia there is no alternative information anymore, and any declaration of the truth is severely punished.
So most Russian citizens may not even realize that Kyiv has been destroyed by nuclear weapons if that happens.
There is another option, in which Russia can start the Third World War. The West has so far opposed sanctions against the Russian invasion of Ukraine. However, it can also be interpreted as an act of military aggression, and the Kremlin has repeatedly used this interpretation in public statements by officials. Even Putin himself has likened sanctions against Russia to an act of war.
So far, the Kremlin’s response has been limited to counter-sanctions. But there are lines that could lead to a global nuclear conflict.
There are historical precedents for this. For example, the Japanese intervention in World War II was preceded by US sanctions. Washington imposes an oil embargo in response to Japan’s invasion of China. Tokyo expects that under these conditions they will be able to support their economy and army for only 11 months. This was followed by the attack on the US Navy stationed at Pearl Harbor on December 7, 1941.
For Russia, the red lines are also oil and gas. These two industries form more than a quarter of the gross domestic product, about 40% of budget revenues and 60% of Russian exports. In recent months, due to rising oil and gas prices and new international sanctions against other industries, the importance of both types of raw materials for the Russian economy has increased even more.
Against this background, US President Joe Biden yesterday announced a new unilateral ban on Russian oil imports to the US due to the invasion of Ukraine. This is the most severe sanction imposed on the Kremlin so far. About 8% of US imports of crude oil and petroleum products last year came from Russia. This is almost 20 million barrels.
If the EU joins the US oil sanctions, the consequences for the Russian economy will be devastating. And the possible military response is limited to the Russian arsenal of strategic warheads.
The question here is whether Putin would dare to destroy the entire world if he were in danger of losing the war in Ukraine and his power. Only the Kremlin knows the answer.