A new report prepared by Spanish analysts at ForwardKeys shows that in the third quarter of this year – in July, August, and September – the volume of passenger air travel will reach 65% of its pre-pandemic level in 2019.
Tourism’s post-pandemic comeback has been patchy, with some parts of the world faring much better than others, and some types of travel, especially beach holidays, far more popular than city trips and sightseeing.
The most successful region in the world that is on the path to rapid recovery in Africa and the Middle East. These markets are expected to reach 83% of 2019 levels in the third quarter. They are followed by the American continent, where they expect indicators of 76%, Europe will recover by 71%, but the Asia-Pacific region – by only 35%.
The current leadership of beach holidays is clearly illustrated by comparing the top ten beach and urban destinations in Europe in 2022 and 2019. Antalya leads the list of beaches, outperforming 2019 by 81%. Tirana is in the black by 36%, and Mykonos is also in the “green” zone – plus 29%. But in the list of cities, only Naples has positive dynamics. Istanbul and Athens are 5% behind the 2019 schedule, while Lisbon is 8%. But they, to be honest, are the air gateway to beach resorts.
A similar trend is seen in the Americas, where bookings for flights to the Caribbean, Central America, and Mexico in the third quarter are 5% higher than in 2019, while bookings for flights to South America, as well as to the US and Canada lags, respectively, by 25% and 31%. The most successful destinations are Costa Rica with a lead of 24%, Jamaica – plus 17%, and the Dominican Republic – plus 13%.
Another conclusion of the study: the enthusiasm for new international travel is so strong that the increase in air fares has had relatively little effect on the decline in demand.
The average planned vacation time in the third quarter is 12 days, compared to 11 days in 2019. There were 16 days in 2021, but then there were far fewer people traveling, and they were mostly more “rich”. The share of people flying in premium cabins in the third quarter will also rise from 12% in 2019 to 15% this year, it has reached 19% in 2021.
The relatively promising prospects for summer travel to Africa and the Middle East stem from a combination of factors. Several Middle Eastern airports serve as hubs for travel between the Asia-Pacific region and Europe, which has led to a resurgence in intercontinental travel in the Middle East. A significant proportion of those who return to Asia to visit friends and relatives.
Travel to and within the Asia-Pacific region has been slower to recover due to tighter COVID-19-related travel restrictions that are still in place.