Istanbul, popular with tourists, is in a zone of very high seismic risk, and there is not much time left before a terrible disaster in Turkey. This was announced by German scientists from the German Center for Geological Research (GFZ) in Potsdam, who named the timing of a new probable earthquake in Istanbul. “Thousands of dead as a result of earthquakes in southeastern Turkey and Syria are a dire warning for Istanbul. An earthquake of up to 7.4 is long overdue for this metropolis,” Marko Bonhoff from the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam told the German press.
The expert is sure: the next big earthquake is just around the corner, and it will most likely happen in the Istanbul area. “Although the situation in Istanbul has not changed due to the recent aftershocks in the southeast, the risk to the metropolis, in general, is as high as in the affected region so far. The average recurrence period of a strong earthquake in Istanbul is 250 years, and the last major earthquake occurred in 1766, so the next one is long overdue,” explained the German expert. Forecasting within a year is difficult, but there is a very high probability that the Istanbul area will be at risk of a major earthquake in the next few years or decades.
According to the GFZ, the region is part of the Northern Anatolian Fault System, a major tectonic plate boundary known for devastating earthquakes with many casualties. Moreover, the main branch of the fault passes only 20 kilometers south of Istanbul below the Sea of Marmara. “Thus, a strong earthquake will have devastating consequences,” Mr. Bonhoff said. The expert explained that the closest hit so far was an earthquake near the city of Izmit, 80 kilometers from Istanbul, in 1999, which killed more than 17,000 people.
“The area below the Sea of Marmara is the only area of the entire North Anatolian plate boundary that has not been activated for more than 250 years,” says Bonhoff. And there are many signs that a lot of tension has accumulated in her.
At the same time, the situation can be aggravated by the geological addition of soil under Istanbul. “The southwestern part does not lie on solid ground like granite, but on a dried-up lagoon. On soft ground, strong amplification of ground motions can be observed, sometimes together with liquefaction effects. Both cause more damage,” German researchers said. The same feature can be an obstacle to raising the alarm in time – due to the small distance to the plate boundary, the warning time may not reach even a few seconds.
Turkish researchers, in turn, assure that for all these risks, “extremely little has been done to prevent tragic consequences.” The authorities did not repair the old buildings and make them earthquake-resistant, and the facilities of the new century are often dangerous. “Architects, construction companies, and other responsible persons often ignored ethical principles and moral values and acted motivated by the thirst for profit. Accordingly, catastrophic consequences should be expected for Istanbul,” the experts warned. At the same time, they assure that “a big earthquake will happen in Istanbul.” “It’s only a matter of time,” the Germans said.