Information was gathered from official and other open sources about what “monkeypox” is and how widespread it is in the world. What are the assessments of the risk of the disease by public authorities and are there any prospects for the introduction of restrictive measures for tourists?
What is “monkeypox”: WHO data
The virus was first isolated from animals in a Danish laboratory in 1958. The monkeypox virus is transmitted to humans from animals – the first case was reported in the Congo in 1970.
Endemic (“native”) for this virus are African countries: Benin, Cameroon, CAR, Congo (both countries), Gabon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. But the flash is not there now.
Monkeypox is transmitted from person to person through close contact: contact with affected areas of skin, secretions (eg sweat), airborne droplets (liquid droplets), and contaminated materials (bedding, clothing).
The incubation period is on average from 6 to 13 days but generally varies from 5 to 21 days. It is believed that monkeypox is less contagious than smallpox and is generally milder.
Symptoms of onset:
- Headache,
- Fever with a rise in temperature above 38.5oC,
- Enlarged / inflamed lymph nodes,
- Myalgia (muscle pain and neuralgia),
- Back and lower back pain,
- Weakness,
Within 1-3 days after a person has had a fever, a skin rash, such as smallpox, usually appears. It tends to focus more on the face and limbs than on the torso.
Children, pregnant women, and people with suppressed immunity are more likely to have a severe course. According to the WHO, there are two main branches of strains: West African (considered lighter, the mortality rate of 3.6% of patients) and Central African (Congolese), the latter is considered more severe, mortality of 10.6%.
It should be noted, however, that these mortality figures are derived from the WHO in a very limited sample of cases in African countries with underdeveloped health care systems (ie, it is, roughly speaking, “mortality if left untreated”). According to data, the mortality rate of monkeypox is from 1% to 11%.
Interestingly, the media is now saying that the disease with such mortality is mostly mild. At the same time, according to the WHO, on its official website, the mortality rate of covid, which closed the whole world, was 1.2%.
In which countries are monkeypox compounds currently recorded
The latest report on the WHO website contains information on 92 laboratory-confirmed and 28 suspected cases of monkeypox in 12 countries that are not endemic to the monkeypox virus (ie there have been no outbreaks in these countries before).
Portugal, Spain, and the United Kingdom are currently leading in the number of detected cases – from 21 to 30 confirmed cases. It is the turn of the three leaders and Canada – there is a lot of suspicion of monkeypox.
As of May 21, cases of monkeypox have already been reported in Australia, Belgium, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the United States. On May 22, there were reports of patients in Switzerland and Greece.
According to the Ministry of Health, no cases of monkeypox infection were registered in Ukraine on May 22.
Is it likely to escalate into a pandemic with travel restrictions?
After the covid pandemic with its complex mechanisms, which largely depended on the policies of major powers and digital media platforms, it is difficult to make any predictions about the course of events.
However, according to the WHO, at the moment the probability of a large-scale pandemic of monkeypox with travel restrictions similar to covid, still looks small.
At least, according to the latest WHO report, the infection shows no signs of “importation” from the countries where it is prevalent, and its transmission is still within a very limited population.
“To date, all reported cases in non-endemic countries have not identified any links to travel or contact with patients endemic for monkeypox virus,” the WHO website said on May 21. That is, patients did not bring this disease across borders.
According to the information available at the moment, the reported cases are mostly, but not, found in men with homosexual orientation, who went to the primary care clinic or specialized dermatological and venereological clinics (literally “sexual health clinics”), – also reported by the WHO.
In an interview with Reuters on May 22, WHO spokesman David Haymann said: “It seems that the monkeypox virus has now entered the population through sexual transmission and is now spreading like other sexually transmitted infections.”
Mr. Haymann also added that the WHO had held a video conference with the International Committee of Experts “on the urgency of the monkeypox virus”. At the same time, he stressed, the committee does not have the authority to declare a health emergency of international importance.
Mr. Heymann emphasized that the current outbreak of monkeypox was not similar to the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, because “the disease is not as easily transmitted as covid”.
If the WHO is right, then restrictions on movement, similar to covid, in the case of smallpox monkeys can not be expected: at least because the prevailing mechanism of distribution is not the same.
After the kid, states “blow on the water”: there is still a slight panic
However, against the background of the almost complete coronavirus pandemic, the sanitary authorities of many countries began, according to a well-known proverb, “to blow on the water, scorched with milk.”
Yes, several states have already announced mandatory 21-day quarantine for patients or those suspected of having the disease (symptomatic). Contact persons must pass tests.
Such a policy has already been announced by Belgium, Italy, and the UAE. The Abu Dhabi Department of Health said in a statement that the UAE was more likely to import the virus from abroad “amid growing international travel.”
It should be noted, however, that in the cases of these three countries there is no question of testing and quarantine for them – it all applies to cases identified so far within these countries. No countries are quarantined for tourists.
US President Joe Biden has already commented on the outbreak of monkeypox. He said the disease was “worrying because its spread will have consequences”.
“I have not yet been informed of the level of influence, but this is something that everyone should be concerned about. We are working hard to understand what to do and what vaccine, if any, may be available, ”Biden was quoted as saying by USA Today.
Jake Sullivan, the US president’s national security adviser, later told reporters that the United States already had a “ready-to-use” vaccine.
Is there a vaccine against monkeypox
The availability of specialized vaccines against monkeypox is highly questionable. Most likely, these are some closed developments of previous years (perhaps the United States decided to revive them).
So far, only information has been found in open sources that in 2019 a new vaccine based on a modified smallpox vaccine (Ankara strain) was approved for the prevention of WHO monkeypox. It is a two-dose vaccine, “the availability of which remains limited,” according to the WHO.