All the resorts of the main province of Antalya in Turkey, where a huge number of tourists rest, have fallen into the zone of risk of a seismic shock, which should occur in the coming years – the exact date cannot be calculated yet. According to the expectations, the earthquake’s destructive force will be stronger than in February in Kahramanmaras. A new alarming statement was published by the local publication Son Dakika, referring to the predictions of Turkish scientists.
According to the head of the branch of the Chamber of Geological Engineers (JMO), geophysicist Bayram Ali Celtyk, Antalya also has tragic events in the past related to solid earthquakes and human casualties, so “they will take place in the resort strip in the coming years.” “The fault line has ‘not moved’ for 500 years, but things can change.” It may be a seismic rupture. Today we see what this has led to. We have similar gaps in Antalya, Aksu, Korkutel, Doshemealt. In our bay (Antalya) there is a subduction zone (a linear zone on the border of lithospheric plates, along which some blocks of the earth’s crust sink under others, the result of their interaction is strong earthquakes in this zone). But we don’t know when the earthquake will happen,” said the geophysicist.
At the same time, the risk of catastrophic landslides does not threaten the center of the resort town, but its periphery — the 640-kilometer coastline, on which hotels, resort villages, and local settlements are concentrated. “Earthquakes in Hataya, Adiyaman, and Kahramanmarash showed us that soil liquefaction is catastrophic. At the moment of an earthquake, the earth behaves like water, loses its capacity, and collapses. It also increases the effects of an earthquake. In particular, Demre, Finike, Kemer, Manavgat, Serik, Alanya – all these areas are near the sea, you dig a meter or two and water comes out of the ground. These are places built on alluvial soil, and therefore a significant destructive effect from an earthquake is expected there,” he added.
Reference: Alluvial soil is formed under the influence of groundwater washing. This is unconsolidated soil, under which, as a rule, there is sand.
In other words, powerful shocks in combination with washed-out soil is a “sentence” for resort towns. Antalya may become the worst version of Kahramanmaraş as a result of the earthquake it just experienced. “Our soil is many times worse than in Kahramanmarash, the height of the buildings is also different. This means a lot of destruction in a smaller earthquake. There have been strong earthquakes in the history of the province. According to historical data, a magnitude 8 earthquake occurred southwest of us. Near us is the Fethiye-Burdur fault zone. Until recently, it produced very strong earthquakes. It is obvious that even because of this fault movement there will be human casualties and the collapse of buildings,” the expert warned.