According to the Minister of Defense of Belarus Viktor Khrenin, Belarus and Russia are planning maneuvers to ensure the security of the southern border with Ukraine.
“We plan to conduct maneuvers together with our partners, our most important strategic ally, Russia,” Khrenin said. The minister said that this is a “medium-term package of measures.”
Next year, he added, the two countries are not planning major maneuvers “like the West or the Allied Shield.”
Russian soldiers in reserve
In turn, Alexander Lukashenko said that “the West understands on whose side Belarus will be in the event of a war on the border with the Russian Federation.”
“They understand very well that if they start a war in Donbass or somewhere else on the border with Russia, Belarus will not be left out. And we know which page it will be on, ”Lukashenka said. He argued that “they began to fortify their northern Belarusian-Ukrainian border”.
The Kiev authorities report a concentration of about 90 thousand people. Russian soldiers at the border between Russia and Ukraine. Intelligence data also indicate concrete plans for another Russian invasion of Ukraine this winter. Some experts believe that a possible attack could have occurred from the territory of Belarus.
Risky attack
As the head of the presidential bureau of international politics, Yakub Kumoch, assessed in an interview with the Polska Times, a complete invasion of Ukraine would be risky for Russia and President Vladimir Putin.
According to him, Russia can use the situation in Belarus to escalate its actions against Ukraine, but “if something like a complete invasion of Ukraine happens, (…) Vladimir Putin (…) will take a great risk.” “The point is not that the war ends for Russia bloodlessly and without any influence on the popularity of Vladimir Putin,” said Yakub Kumoch.
He also noted that “Ukraine in 2014 showed that it is not a country that easily renounces its independence.” “The resolve of the Ukrainian nation is great, and the Ukrainian armed forces are in a better condition than in 2014,” he said.