After leaving the White House in January, Donald Trump promised to remain a force in US politics. So what happened?
On a cold January morning in Washington, US President Donald Trump and his wife Melania left the White House for the last time.
They boarded a helicopter and flew to Andrews Air Force Base, where a small group of supporters and his children and their spouses gathered to hear his farewell.
Among his remarks about rebuilding the military, rescuing veterans, growing the economy, and handling COVID-19, which he called a “medical miracle,” was the latest and most sinister promise.
“Have a good life, see you soon,” Mr Trump said.
Observers took this as the last promise of the Republican president that perhaps, after physically leaving the District of Columbia, his presence will be felt for many years.
But in recent months, Trump has not been the political force he and his most loyal supporters have promised, largely disappearing from public life.
What happened? There are several theories.
No one hears him, and fewer people care
Not long ago, anything Trump said or did could lead television newsletters, news websites, and paper front pages, as well as dominate social media discourse.
The situation has changed dramatically: media monitoring, which shows that mentions of him have dried up, with the exception of cable television news – although his presence is still there.
His own means of communication on social networks no longer exist, so without giving a sitting interview, his only method of reaching supporters is to publish in the media.
But according to The Atlantic, Trump’s press release is not the most effective way to convey the message.
“He e-mails statements – sometimes several times a day – to reporters, apparently in the hope that they will cross them out, but it’s not the same,” David Graham wrote in the article.
It’s not just that he’s no longer president, and that’s why, naturally, media coverage has dried up.
If readers, viewers, and visitors were still reading, watching, and pushing, Trump would dominate the news in a similar way.
In early January, just weeks before he fired the White House, Twitter “permanently” suspended Trump’s account due to repeated violations of his policies.
And the social media giant does not want to return its most famous user to the platform.
Trump’s ability to instantly share his thoughts and receive immediate feedback, as well as confirmation from his loyal base, has disappeared.
He even discussed creating his own network of social networks, where he could interact directly with his supporters, but this has not yet happened.
Republicans hope he just leaves
Earlier this week, numerous media outlets reported that Trump had rejected a request to meet with Florida Congressman Matt Goetz
Goetz is the subject of an investigation by the Ministry of Justice into alleged trafficking in a minor’s sexual services, and a number of convicting allegations have been made. He denies any wrongdoing.
When Trump’s refusal to provide his most loyal political support was announced, he was quick to strongly oppose and praise Mr. Getz.
Most Republicans are silent about the legal troubles of the armed congressman, especially since it turned out that one of his accomplices is now cooperating with investigators.
Mr. Trump’s unequivocal support has been poorly received by some Republicans.
The New York Times reports that “many Republicans have privately stated that they hope Trump will disappear after holding office in which the party lost both houses of Congress and the White House.”
At the same time, there is a recognition of the enormous power he still possesses with millions of rusty supporters.
The party wants to retain some, if not most, of these voters, and they will need to reach out to them.
For starters, this means not angering Trump and becoming the target of his rage, as Senator McConnell does.
And the Times added: “Many privately hope that a criminal investigation into Trump’s case by the New York District Attorney will lead to accusations that prevent him from running again or even being a major figure in the party.”
One of Trump’s biggest calls was his power for “outsiders” to come in and radically change Washington, DC, forever.
His base also felt that he understood them, defended their countless concerns, and could do something about them.
After four years in power, none of these things came true.
As the frantic anger of his defeat and the inability to cancel the election wears off, MAGA enthusiasts will ask if they are better off than before Trump entered politics.
For not a small number … the answer is likely to be no.
And while opinion polls show that Trump retains strong support, it is declining as more voters divert their attention or turn it off altogether.
Some followers who saw him as a person who could challenge the establishment would see his defeat as proof that politics could not be bought out and that he would fall into apathy and disunity.
For others, the loss of Trump makes him a loser – especially harmful given how Trump hates the losers. Now they will look for other heroes.
He is busy – and silent about it
It is possible that Trump’s calm is due to the fact that he and his closest advisers and family members are occupied.
The Institute for First Policy in America was established this week, a $ 20 million operating center with former White House advisers and founded by Ivanka Trump and her husband Jared Kushner.
Trump quickly praised the initiative as his full support, saying that the organization “will not only preserve the historic achievements of my administration, but also advance America’s First Program in the future.”
According to CNN editor-in-chief Chris Chilliza, this is a sign that the former president is not really going anywhere.
And the group – one of several he and his supporters have created, alongside Republican structures – is “even more evidence … that he is creating what constitutes the shadow VP.”
From the moment he lost the election, speculation began that Trump would gain his strong support and create his own political party.
The fundraiser, founded by Trump and his partners, has raised a staggering $ 109 million since his resignation.
Taken together, all of these events lay the groundwork for the former president to maintain and increase his power and influence, whether one likes it or not.
And if he wants to, it makes a second step in 2024 a real prospect.