Hopes for the resumption of tourism in Turkey after the COVID-19 pandemic have plummeted since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began. The demand for summer reservations has stopped and at the same time Turkish experts have realized that the point of no return has been passed – no recovery in 2022 will have to wait, because tourists will not go to them en masse.
Millions of Russians and Ukrainians fly to Turkish resorts every year, but it is expected that this year’s figures will be much lower than previous values and, moreover, the optimistic forecasts given by experts for this year. According to the Ministry of Tourism, visitors from Ukraine and Russia accounted for more than a quarter of all tourists who arrived in Turkey last year. In a few days after the start of the war late last month, Russians and Ukrainians canceled reservations for travel to Turkey and other countries, AFP reported.
“Ukraine and Russia are very important markets for us. Last year, about 4.5 million Russian and two million Ukrainian tourists visited Turkey, “said Hamita Cook of the Association of Turkish Travel Agencies (TURSAB).
TURSAB’s forecasts for this year were even more impressive: 7 million Russians and 2.5 million Ukrainians were expected to visit the country. However, due to recent events, these figures will have to be revised and expectations will be seriously reduced.
“What is happening between Russia and Ukraine makes everyone nervous. Both from a human and a commercial point of view. Usually in March there would be a surge in summer bookings. But demand stopped. If this continues, there will be a very serious problem, “said Firuz Balikaya, head of the Turkish Travel Agencies Association (TÜRSAB). We will add that in the southern resorts of Turkey the high season for Russian tourists usually begins in early May. According to some experts, the number of cancellations exceeds 70%.
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Turkey, which is heavily dependent on Russian tourists, is seeking to increase tourism revenues to help stimulate economic growth and cover the current account deficit. The Turkish government has said that tourism revenues this year may be equal to or exceed the record $ 35 billion earned in 2019, but this forecast now seems unrealistic without an element of the missing tourist flow – Russian and Ukrainian vacationers.
Turkey’s proximity to the war in Ukraine could also keep European and other Western tourists from traveling to the republic. In the forecast year of 2019, 39.5 million people came to the country on vacation, and last year the total number was 24.7 million people.
The main opposition People’s Republican Party recently published a report claiming that the shortage of Russian and Ukrainian tourists could cost the Turkish tourism sector about $ 5 billion.
“If the Ukrainian conflict drags on after March or April, I do not expect Russian and Ukrainian vacationers to arrive this summer. This is due to psychology. You can’t spend a summer vacation abroad if your parents are fighting for your country or you have lost a relative on the battlefield, “said Bulut Bagci, president of the World Tourism Forum Institute.
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If the war in Ukraine ends before the peak season, it is likely that Russian tourists will start booking places to stay in Turkey, but again there may be other problems – due to tough financial and payment sanctions imposed on Russia, tourists will find it difficult to decide to travel from bank cards in hand. The reasons are that after the exclusion from the SWIFT system, the seven largest Russian banks Visa and Mastercard blocked the use of Russian bank cards abroad.
“There is still no legal framework for cryptocurrency payments in Turkey. Therefore, Russian tourists who use cryptocurrency will not change our lives, “another interlocutor explained to the publication.
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