Bookings by German tourists for tours to Turkey came to a halt after the February earthquake. This information was provided by the German analytical agency Travel Data & Analytics (TDA). According to them, tourists “prefer to wait and see what happens.” Moreover, the forecasts for seismic safety, voiced, among other things, by German scientists, inspire concern. In addition, the problem of refugees, who are currently accommodated in hotels in Antalya and other resorts in Turkey, also played a role.
According to experts from the analytical agency Travel Data & Analytics (TDA), until the beginning of February, bookings were active, and in terms of cash flow, the number of bookings made in Germany in January exceeded the level of 2019, but the backlog remained in terms of the number of tourists. This was explained, among other things, by increased prices. At the same time, the eastern Mediterranean, primarily Turkey, as well as Greece and Egypt, accounted for up to 40% of bookings, with Turkey showing rapid growth, overtaking even the “pre-Covid” level.
However, after the earthquake, reservations “stood up,” experts stressed.
“Bookings for holidays in the Eastern Mediterranean region as a whole have declined. Tourists prefer to wait and see what happens in the area,” experts said.
There are two expected reasons for this. Firstly, tourists are frightened both by the earthquake itself and by multiple forecasts that this is not the end of the “seismic tension” and the resorts are under threat. This was also confirmed by the recent earthquake in the resort province of Izmir. On Monday evening, an earthquake was recorded in the Aegean near the resort province. The magnitude was significantly less than that of the catastrophic earthquakes of early February – only 4.1. But this was enough for locals and tourists to run out into the street in a panic. Read the details at this link.
Recall also that it was German scientists who also suggested that Istanbul could also be in the zone of the violence of the elements. The fact that the “cultural capital” of Turkey is in a zone of extremely high seismic risk, and Turkey does not have much time left before a terrible catastrophe, said German scientists from the German Geological Research Center (GFZ) in Potsdam, who named the timing of a new probable earthquake in Istanbul. Marco Bonhoff from the German Research Center for Geosciences (GFZ) in Potsdam is sure that the next major earthquake is just around the corner, and it is most likely to occur in the Istanbul region. “Although the situation in Istanbul has not changed as a result of the latest quakes in the southeast, the risk to the metropolis as a whole is as high as in the currently affected region. The average return period for a strong earthquake in Istanbul is 250 years, and the last major earthquake occurred in 1766, so the next one is long overdue,” the German expert explained. It is difficult to make a forecast with an accuracy of a year, but the probability that a strong earthquake threatens the Istanbul region in the next few years or decades is extremely high.
The second reason is also related to the earthquake – the problem of refugees. According to some experts, tourists will not want to live for their money in the same hotels that accept the victims. And what’s more, they are unlikely to check into hotels even immediately after, if they don’t prepare for the season by making at least cosmetic repairs.
The Germans so far, due to all these circumstances, Spain can win. According to another analytical agency Reyseanalyse, at least 13% of Germans chose this direction, 11% planned Italy, and 6% Greece.