Spain, the world’s second pre-COVID-19 travel destination, is expecting a record number of tourists this summer after two years of health restrictions. However, inflation could lead to difficult times when the season ends. There will be no more partially empty beaches and hotels looking for guests. The fury of travel across Europe caused a frenzied rise in the number of tourists in Spain at the start of the tourist season.
According to the Spanish Ministry of Tourism, 22.7 million people visited the country in the first five months of 2022, seven times more than in the same period in 2021, and this trend is expected to continue through the summer tourist season.
“The booking figures confirm that our country is a favorite destination internationally and there are good prospects for the high season,” Tourism Minister Reyes Maroto said.
“After two long years, we will have a normal summer,” said Fernando Valdes, Secretary of State for Tourism.
According to Exceltur, an association of travel companies, July and August this year could be “similar” to those of 2019, which was a record-breaking tourist year for Spain.
“European and national demand is very strong and will benefit the entire sector,” said vice president of the association, José Luis Zoreda.
This opinion is shared by professionals, especially on the coast. “This summer will certainly be one of the best in history,” said Diego Salinas, head of the Association of Bars, Restaurants, and Cafeterias (ABRECA) of Benidorm, a famous tourist town on the Costa Blanca in the east of the country.
Javier Ibanez, an economist at Caixabank, is slightly less optimistic and expects Spain’s tourism GDP to be “same as in 2017”, i.e. lower than in 2019.
The recovery is a relief for the tourism sector, on which 13% of jobs in Spain and 12.5% of GDP depended before the pandemic. However, it is difficult for professionals to find work, especially on the coast and in large cities.
According to Exceltur, this year’s tourism-generated GDP is expected to reach 151.8 billion euros – 10 billion euros more than the original forecast.
This figure is slightly lower than in 2019 (€155 billion) but much higher than in 2020 (€52 billion) and 2021 (€88 billion).
The destinations that should benefit the most from this recovery during the tourist season are those on the Andalusian coast (+7.4% compared to 2019), the Canary Islands (+3.5%), and the Balearic Islands (+3. 6%).
The sectors with the most optimistic outlook are amusement parks (+7.4%) and car rental companies (+1.7%).
However, such a strong recovery also brings fears. For example, problems with mass tourism, which in recent weeks have caused havoc at several airports in the country and reignited disputes about the model of mass tourism.
This “explosion in tourism demand” could cause “saturation” problems that lead to “clashes between residents and tourists,” affecting the “reputation of the sector,” Zoreda admitted.
Harmful and widespread price increases. This “inflationary spiral”, which particularly affects energy and food, is limiting “profit margins for companies,” Exceltour warned.
But could this price increase slow down the economic recovery as it lowers consumer purchasing power? Although the sector has shown resilience so far, the economic downturn caused by the war in Ukraine will “affect” tourism, admits Caixabank’s Javier Ibáñez.