The current optimism of European and American tourists is not affected by the geopolitical crisis in Ukraine, but forecasts for the future have become gloomy, if not scary … Such data showed a survey conducted by consulting firm Fried & Partner. According to their figures, currently 35.8% of travel agents in Germany assess the current situation with the sale of tourist services as good. At the same time, the share of agencies that claim that sales are at a satisfactory level was 50% in February and fell to 46.2% in March. However, the share of agencies that said sales were poor fell to 17.9% in March from 23% in February.
Forecasts for the future are very pessimistic. The share of those who stated that “the demand for travel will grow” was 79% in February and fell to 69.4% in March. The share of agencies expecting the business to remain stable over the next six months rose from 18.1% in February to 20% in March, but the share of those who said the business would fall completely rose from 2.9% to 10.2%. and this is what shocked everyone. There is a decrease in the expectations of the income of travel agencies. The share of those who said that “incomes will increase”, which amounted to 63.9% in February, decreased to 61.1% in March.
In general, the numbers are logical. On the one hand, Europeans who are “exhausted by the coronavirus” are trying to relax, on the other hand, the rampant rise in fuel prices is leading to a sharp rise in tour prices, which is too much for frugal Europeans. Geopolitical upheavals also do not benefit tourism. As a result, the Berlin ITB identified five main trends – tours will become more expensive, tourists will prefer “short” bookings, the coronavirus will go off the agenda, etc. Here are five trends in tourism change in Germany and the United States (the most developed countries in terms of tourism), identified by ITB experts.
Summer vacation 2022 will be more expensive: a sharp rise in prices “can not be ruled out” said the president of the German Tourist Association DRV Norbert Phoebe. Lufthansa has already announced an increase in ticket prices. Therefore, the head of the FTI Group Ralph Schiller advises to plan your vacation in advance. At the same time, the old problems have not gone away: after two years of the coronavirus pandemic, hotels and airlines in many places have not yet fully increased their capabilities. TUI has announced that prices are rising on the Greek islands of Crete, Rhodes, Corfu and Kos, and in some cases quotas for summer and
Summer vacation 2022 will be more expensive: a sharp rise in prices “can not be ruled out” said the president of the German Tourist Association DRV Norbert Phoebe. Lufthansa has already announced an increase in ticket prices. Therefore, the head of the FTI Group Ralph Schiller advises to plan your vacation in advance. At the same time, the old problems have not gone away: after two years of the coronavirus pandemic, hotels and airlines in many places have not yet fully increased their capabilities. TUI has announced that prices are rising on the Greek islands of Crete, Rhodes, Corfu and Kos, and in some cases quotas for summer and Pentecost are no longer enough. By the way, in Germany “flew up” in price and local resorts – in the Baltic Sea. And 70% are already booked. Related services, such as car rental, will also be the most expensive.
Coronavirus is off the agenda: more and more countries are lifting restrictions or planning to do so in the near future. Sweden, Norway, Iceland and Slovenia no longer have entry restrictions. In Germany, simplification is expected on March 20.
The tourism industry is not yet afraid of geopolitical consequences – despite all Europe’s fears of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the number of bookings is still growing, but the situation in Ukraine creates additional problems for the tourism industry, according to the German Tourist Association (DRV). The fate of tourism depends on how quickly the war will end – and whether it will go beyond Ukraine, as the Germans fear.
Tourists prefer online bookings and shorter deadlines: while most tourists from Germany need more than three months to decide to buy a tour in 2019, now 28% of tourists decide within one to three months. The relevance of travel cancellation insurance has increased by almost 10%.
Domestic tourism and Mediterranean classics: Mediterranean classics are especially popular among Germans. “Growth is even higher than in 2019,” says Tui Germany boss Baumert. The main leaders are Mallorca, the Turkish Riviera and the Greek islands of Crete, Rhodes and Kos. The second trend is domestic tourism, which, however, will decline. In 2020, domestic travel accounted for 45%, in 2021 – 37%.
Pessimists predict that the future rise in prices will inevitably affect ticket prices and this crisis for tourism will be even worse than the coronavirus. Yes, the European aviation industry is facing difficult times due to sanctions, closed skies and kerosene prices that have skyrocketed. The number of air traffic in Europe decreased by 23% in a week, and transatlantic flights – by 13%. Including “arrived” and tourism – the losses are already reported
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