The pandemic and its impact on travel habits have hit travel companies hard. However, in the coming years, experts expect a recovery that will begin in China and the United States in 2022.
Most estimates agree that demand for long-distance transportation in Europe will stabilize only by 2025/2026; for business travel, most likely not earlier than 2030.
These are the findings of a study by consultancy Roland Berger, “All Changes: How Covid-19 Disrupted the Future of Long Distance Mobility,” which examined the impact of COVID-19 on long-distance travel by plane, train and car.
As part of the study, experts conducted a large-scale survey of 7,000 consumers, and also conducted a series of interviews with industry representatives.
Changing habits
According to experts, in the coming years, demand will return to the pre-crisis level, but it will be somewhat different.
Train travel will be more popular with consumers, who will also pay more attention to the environment while traveling, and business travelers will be on the road less often, but the travel time will be longer.
The survey showed that with the removal of all restrictions related to COVID, two significant changes are to be expected in the future.
On the one hand, respondents assume that in the future they will make about 20% fewer trips, both private and business.
On the other hand, the demand for business travel is expected to decline significantly compared to pre-Covid-19 levels (-24% in Europe and the US and -21% in China).
Significant losses in business travel
The move to virtual meetings has led to a decrease in travel desire among business travelers. This is especially noticeable in Europe (44%) and the USA (40%).
In China, rules and regulations (45%) remain the most important driving force for business travel, followed by cost considerations (43%).
Experts also note that due to the pandemic, companies were forced to revise travel rules and, in some cases, switch to the use of virtual communication technologies.
The trend towards greater awareness and efficiency in travel will continue and will be especially felt in the business sector.
Sustainable development on the agenda
The growing consumer awareness of the importance of sustainable development has already prompted industry and governments to cut CO2 emissions. The mega trends of green mobility and sustainable development will have an impact on both private and business travel.
Another important trend will be the development of new forms of mobility, which, however, will not have short-term consequences for the tourism industry. Technological innovations like autonomous vehicles or air taxis are unlikely to hit the mass consumer market until 2030.
A New Normal in Europe by 2025?
Experts usually assume that a “new normal” with the removal of all restrictions associated with the pandemic will come in 2024.
Thanks to strong market growth, China is expected to recover the fastest, by early or mid-2022. The US will follow in 2022. In Europe, long haul demand is likely not to stabilize until 2025/26.
The experts also noted that industry stakeholders need to look at new consumer segments, rethink their business models and make sustainable development an integral part of corporate strategy.
Different consumer segments will recover at different rates. Thus, developing products for specific segments can become a hurdle for companies, both financially and in terms of competitiveness.