The UNWTO (International Tourism Organization) remains optimistic about resuming international travel, although the date of full recovery is being pushed back further and further – it is now 2025. Recovery depends on many factors, not least the situation with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In this case, the recovery will be uneven. Al-Batuti, an economic adviser to the UNWTO, a member of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe and a member of the board of the German Tourist Association, made such statements to the Egyptian media.
To begin with, he was encouraged by Egypt, saying that the country will attract about 7.5 million tourists this year. And not at the expense of Russia: he predicts, in particular, that the volume of German tourism will increase to the Pyramids by about 30-35% compared to last year, and this compensates for losses in tourism from the Ukrainian and Russian markets.
In general, the forecast is as follows: this year the global tourism movement will reach 68% of the level that existed before COVID-19. In 2023, this figure is expected to increase to 82%, then to 97% in 2024 and fully recover by 2025 alone, with an expected influx of 1.5 billion international tourists. And in some countries the rate of recovery will be higher than in others.
Thus, international travel from North America showed an improvement in 2021 and increased by 15% compared to the same period last year. The United States has become the world’s largest outbound travel market in 2021. In 2022, the number of flights departing from North America will reach 69% of the 2019 level, and in 2024 they are expected to fully recover.
In Europe, according to Al-Batuti, the number of international flights will reach 69% of 2019. But mostly it will be short distance travel. And even in 2025, the expert promises Europe only 98% of the level of 2019 – and if the fuel and economic crisis is kept within, and the war “will not spread beyond Ukraine.” “Russia was the fifth largest market for outbound travel in the world in 2019, while Ukraine ranked twelfth. From now on, limited travel from these countries will hinder the resumption of tourism in Europe as a whole, “the expert added.
In the Asia-Pacific region, he also predicts a delay in recovery, and the number of flights departing from the region in 2022 will reach only 67% of 2019 due to the relatively slow lifting of travel restrictions and trends to update local rules during the outbreak COVID-19. The main culprit is China, which was once the largest market for outbound travel in the region and the world, but shows no signs of easing its tough border measures in the short term.
“The total volume of international travel will return to pre-pandemic levels by 2025, but as there have been some long-term shifts and short-term trends, the demand for tourism may look very different,” al-Batuti said.