Air industry data analytics company Cirium has released its forecast for a recovery in passenger traffic in the coming year. Despite significant growth, airline passenger traffic is expected to remain below 2015 levels.
In their second annual Airline Insights Review, aviation analysts predicted an industry recovery and predicted a 47% increase in passenger traffic (in terms of seat occupancy) in 2022. This is the 2015 level.
The coronavirus pandemic and its aftermath have wiped out 15 years of global passenger traffic growth over the past 20 months, dropping 2020 throughput to levels last seen in 2005. Despite a mixed recovery in 2021, global throughput is expected to return to 2006 levels by the end of this year.
However, in countries with strong domestic markets, the recovery in passenger traffic has accelerated significantly this year, most notably in the United States and China. Domestic flights in China even increased 6% from pre-2019 levels. Of the total number of flights registered worldwide between January and the end of October 2021, 78% were domestic. International air travel has been slowly recovering amid new (or still in effect) restrictions through the fourth quarter of 2021, and in 2021 they are up 6% over the same period in 2020.
2022 is predicted to be a year of acceleration. Globally, domestic travel (measured in passenger numbers) is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels as air passenger numbers rise globally by the end of 2022. The estimates also show that international passenger traffic will reach two-thirds of the 2019 level. According to available data, by the end of 2022, the global passenger fleet will increase to 20,700 aircraft – just a few hundred less than the level before the pandemic at the end of 2019.
Airlines will rely more on partnerships to transport passengers to their partners’ domestic markets in 2022. Thus, airlines will serve fewer secondary markets after the pandemic and will instead use their airline partners to transport passengers to secondary cities.
The slow recovery in the business travel segment recorded to date is also expected to reverse in 2022, with the industry forecasting 36% year-on-year business travel growth.
Unsurprisingly, with more aircraft in the air, CO2 emissions will rise next year. To the delight of eco-activists, CO2 emissions from flights in 2021 were 40% lower than before the pandemic. However, airlines are now using a more fuel efficient fleet and sustainability is now taking center stage in aviation. Many airlines are paying significant attention to fuel consumption and how to improve targets to achieve zero emissions by 2050.