First the Covid-19 pandemic, now the war in Ukraine. Over the past few months, many events have taken place around the world that have had an impact on the tourism industry.
Germany, as one of the strongest economies and tourism markets in Europe, has also felt the effects of the health crisis and is now preparing for the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Pre-crisis level in 2023
Despite an increase in bookings, German tourism is not expected to return to pre-Covid-19 levels in the coming tourism year.
“I am optimistic that we can expect sales to return to pre-crisis levels in 2023,” Norbert Fiebig, president of the German Travel Association DRV, said Wednesday ahead of the ITB online congress.
In general, people want to travel. Bookings for the summer season are increasing at travel agencies and online travel portals, and since the beginning of February they are reported to be higher than the pre-crisis weeks of February 2019.
Moreover, this year, Germans plan to spend much more money on vacation and travel than in 2021. DRV, which represents travel agencies and tour operators, expects a positive stimulus from the relaxation of Covid-19 rules for holidaymakers returning to Germany.
What’s more, more than 50% of Germans are planning a longer vacation again. More than one in two Germans (57%) are already sure they will go on vacation this year.
Increasing number of business trips
Another aspect of the German tourism industry worth paying attention to is the business travel sector. According to the German Travel Management Association (VDR) in its current study of the pandemic situation among VDR member companies.
Despite the expected increase in demand, the sharp collapse caused by the pandemic has not yet been fully offset. In addition to the negative effects of the pandemic, rising costs and bureaucracy, the positive effects in terms of sustainability and traveler safety, as well as digital opportunities, also play an important role.
2021 initially started off uncertainly: at the beginning of the year, most companies limited their business trips to 5-10% of the value of 2019. In the middle of the year, a third of VDR participants even reached 25% of this level. .
This trend will continue into early 2022, with about a quarter of VDR members now making up to 50% of their trips from 2019, and a similar number allowing unrestricted business travel.
Possible consequences of the war in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine “casts a shadow of uncertainty” on German tourism, Fiebig said in a speech before the ITB congress.
“Now diplomacy must quickly prevail to end this illegal war and the growing human suffering as soon as possible,” Fiebig said. It is not yet possible to predict to what extent the war will affect people’s booking behavior after two years of the pandemic.
Therefore, at the moment it is difficult to predict what the future holds for Germany in the context of the war in Ukraine. However, it is safe to say that the influx of tourists from both Russia and Ukraine will decrease in the coming months for various reasons.