First the Covid-19 pandemic, now the war in Ukraine. The world has experienced a lot in the last couple of months, and this has later affected the tourism industry, including tourism in Germany.
Germany, as one of the strongest economies and tourism markets in Europe, has been affected by the health crisis and is now preparing for the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Pre-crisis level in 2023
Despite the increase in the number of bookings, German tourism does not expect to return to pre-crisis level Covid-19 until next tourist year.
“I am optimistic that in 2023 we can expect sales to return to the level of the pandemic,” said Norbert Phoebeg, president of the German Tourist Association DRV, on Wednesday before the online ITB congress.
In general, people have a great desire to travel. Reservations for the summer season are increasing in travel agencies and online travel portals and have reportedly exceeded the pre-crisis weeks of February 2019 since early February.
Moreover, people in Germany plan to spend much more money on vacations and travel this year than in 2021. DRV, representing travel agencies and tour operators, expects positive impetus from the easing of Covid-19 rules for holidaymakers returning to Germany.
In addition, more than 50% of Germans are again planning a longer vacation. More than every second German (57%) is already confident that he will go on vacation this year.
Business trips on the rise
Another aspect of Germany’s tourism industry that is worth noting is the situation in the business tourism sector, according to the German Travel Management Association (VDR), in its current review of the pandemic situation among VDR member companies.
Despite the expected delayed demand, the sharp decline caused by the pandemic is far from compensatory. In addition to the negative effects of the pandemic, rising costs and high bureaucracy, the positive effects on sustainability and security for travelers, as well as digital opportunities, also play an important role.
2021 initially began hesitantly: at the beginning of the year, most companies reduced their business trips to 5-10% of 2019. By mid-year, a third of VDR participants had reached 25% of this level.
The trend will continue in early 2022. About a quarter of VDR members now make up to 50% of their travel from 2019 and also allow unlimited business trips.
Expected consequences of the war in Ukraine
Russia’s war in Ukraine “casts a shadow of uncertainty” on German tourism, Phoebe said in an address to the ITB Congress.
“Diplomacy must now prevail quickly so that this illegal war and the suffering of growing people can be stopped as soon as possible,” Phoebe said. It is not yet possible to predict the extent to which the war will affect people’s behavior when booking two years after the pandemic.
Thus, it is now difficult to predict what the future holds for Germany in the context of the war in Ukraine. However, at the moment we can say with confidence that the flow of tourists from both Russia and Ukraine for various reasons will decrease in the coming months.