Italy is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world, approximately 40% of potential tourists would like to visit Italy.
These clearly show what the tourism industry means for the country. But what are the prospects for Italian tourism in the summer months of the 2021 season? Could he recover from the horrific months of the COVID-19 pandemic?
Tourism Minister is optimistic
According to the country’s tourism minister Massimo Garavaglia, a “full house” is approaching in Italy, as “the car has started again.”
However, Garavaglia also noted that this will only apply to seaside and mountain destinations, while major cities will continue to grapple with the shortage of tourists in the coming months.
The minister also added that the number of bookings in Italy is expected to increase by 10% compared to last year, with an increase in domestic travel. Finally, one cannot fail to note the renewed, albeit limited, flow of foreign tourists.
Unreasonable optimism?
However, judging by the latest data, the optimism of the minister may seem somewhat unfounded, especially considering the importance of the tour industry for Italy.
According to the Centro Studi Turistici (Florence), the number of overnight stays in Italy by foreign tourists will drop by an astounding 56 million compared to 2018, when 60 million foreign tourists stayed overnight in the country.
This drop represents a loss of € 3.2 billion for the sector, which represents 13% of Italian GDP. In other words, this is a serious blow to the Italian tourism industry, which has been unable to catch its breath since the start of the pandemic.
Strong blow to Bergamo
In this difficult situation, as already mentioned, the cities suffer most from the lack of tourists. One of these cities is also Bergamo, which is often visited by travelers heading to Milan.
However, this year is a different story, mainly due to the Covid-19 pandemic in the city, which caused the highest death rate in Europe (6,000 deaths / 150,000 inhabitants).
“I don’t blame the tourists. The whole world has seen photographs of our church full of coffins. Everyone saw it. Of course, they are afraid, ”local residents say.
Foreign arrivals drop 80% in Lombardy
Another example of Italy’s desperate plight is Lombardy, one of the most important regions for the tourism sector.
Over the four month period of the year (January – April 2021), international tourist arrivals decreased by about 80% compared to 2019.
Lombardy tops the list of regions in terms of hotel turnover: € 15 billion. This is 17% of the country’s total trade. Moreover, there are more than a quarter of a million tourism companies operating in the region.
For this reason, stakeholders are calling for urgent and substantial action in the Italian tourism sector, which is one of the engines of the economy, so that the summer season finally becomes a turning point.
A green certificate can be a boost
The Italian green certificate could be the impetus for the development of Italian tourism, allowing people to move freely around the country.
A pass is a document confirming a vaccination against Covid-19, recovery from the same infection, or a negative molecular test result. In a way, this is very similar to the EU initiative, with the difference that it gives you advantages in terms of internal travel.
When will the industry recover?
A question that has been asked by many, but to which there is no simple and unambiguous answer. There are many factors that will influence the recovery of the tourism industry and it is difficult to predict a date or even a year at this point.
However, Deloitte provided its estimates for the country’s tourism recovery. According to the company, “real recovery” should be expected domestically in 2023, while the international market will recover in another year.
However, this, of course, does not mean that the tourist situation will not improve from now on. The estimates were made at the end of 2020, prior to the start of the vaccination campaign.
In this context, it is hoped that the campaign itself will be able to improve the sector’s performance starting in 2021. In short, recovery will be slow, but likely stable and permanent.