France voted in the second round of regional elections on Sunday after the first round, which shocked President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party, disappointed far-right Marine Le Pen and recorded a low turnout.
For some observers, the results of the first round on June 20 cast doubt on whether the 2022 presidential election will be reduced to a duel between Macron and Le Pen in the second round, which has long been considered the most likely scenario.
The results of the first round were the impetus for traditional right-wing Republicans, as well as the Socialist Party, which were squeezed after the centrist Macron came to power in 2017 with his new party, the Republic on the Move (LREM).
Analysts warn against excessive extrapolation of the results of regional elections across the country, during which the heads of 13 continental regions of France are elected – from Brittany in the northwest to the Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur region (PACA) in the southeast.
But all parties were concerned about voter turnout last week, which was avoided by 66.72 percent of voters – a record for modern France.
“What we’re seeing is the culmination of a rift between the electorate and the political class,” said Jessica Senti, a professor of politics at the University of Avignon, acknowledging that the Covid-19 crisis has also played a high role.
The horrific turnout has sparked a debate over how to improve participation, with several people, including government spokesman Gabriel Attal, suggesting that e-voting could help in the future.
According to a poll published on Thursday, only 36 percent of voters plan to vote on Sunday. “France is suffocating,” Le Parisien said.
The results of the first round brought the party of Le Pen (RN) forward in only one region, PACA, which was a big disappointment after the polls showed a possible breakthrough in several areas.
One of the most closely watched races on Sunday will be whether RN candidate Thierry Mariani will be able to beat his right-wing rival Renault Muselier in the region.
Gaining control of the region for the first time will be a huge incentive for Le Pen, as she seeks to convince voters that the RN, which she reformed and renamed after being replaced by her father Jean-Marie, is a serious party in power.
RN has also failed in the Ile-de-France region, which includes Paris, where its 25-year-old star Jordan Bardella has failed to thwart incumbent right-wing party Valerie Pecres, who is now expected to easily win the second round.
The results of the first round made it even more unpleasant for Macron and his LREM, confirming the party’s inability to establish local and regional roots, despite the control of the presidency and the lower house of parliament.
Despite the fact that several ministers were sent for the election campaign, and Macron himself went on a nationwide tour. But in some regions, LREM did not score the required 10 percent for the second round.
“2022: what if it wasn’t them?” – asked the headline in the left-wing newspaper Liberation over the photo of Macron and Le Pen.
The LREM has almost no chance of gaining control of a particular region, and currently ranks only fifth among French political parties.
The Socialists are expected to prevail in some regions, thanks to the support of the far-left party France Unbowed.
“There is no local presence in the LREM, but in 2017 it did not prevent them from winning the presidential and legislative elections,” Saint said.