The slow pace of vaccinations threatens the 2021 summer season, fears the airline association IATA, which has also revised upward its forecasts for carrier losses.
The IATA Association sees a threat to business during the lucrative summer season. Slow vaccination rates mean timely travel restrictions cannot be expected, fears IATA chief economist Brian Pearce. “An important period for airline business during the summer season is under threat,” he said. As a result, the airlines are likely to suffer even higher losses this year than the association anticipated last December. Pierce revised its loss forecast for this year from just under $ 39 billion previously projected to $ 47-48 billion.
At the end of last year, IATA was still hoping that this year the volume of flights will reach 51% of the level of 2019. Now it is still 43%. This is in passenger kilometers – all flights of all passengers combined.
The main problem, according to Mr. Pearce, is travel restrictions in many countries. But there is also a light at the end of the tunnel: passengers are ready to travel, – said the manager. “We have good reason to be optimistic,” says IATA chief Willie Walsh. “There are clear signs that significant pent-up demand will emerge once travel restrictions are loosened or lifted.”
Willie Walsh believes IATA’s top priority is opening borders and returning air travel. The IATA Travel Pass is a good way to do this, he said. The document digitizes test results and vaccination certificates. In the future, passengers will not have to stand in line for checks with papers in their hands. In addition, Walsh is demanding that coronavirus-related travel rules be lifted as soon as possible after the pandemic recedes. Requirements for testing or vaccination certificates should not be allowed to remain in effect indefinitely.
Mr. Walsh is demanding an end to the “exorbitant” cost of testing for Covid-19 when “governments get their share of taxes.” He assured that containing and cutting costs will be the most important for airlines, as higher transport costs will mean a slower economic recovery. “It is imperative that all parties strive to cut costs,” he added.
Regions with large markets without international borders will do the best to recover at this time, especially in the second half of the year, according to IATA’s forecast. Regions like Europe with many national borders are the worst example because different countries have different entry rules. While in the US everyone will be vaccinated by July, in Europe it will take longer, for example in Germany and France, until October, according to research by Airfinity.